The last couple of weeks have been rough (a combined 6-8 against the spread). Last week, I admitted I had no clue on the bets to make. At least I knew I knew nothing. However, the one thing I thought I knew is that the Packers would win (I predicted a 42-2 win. They lost 38-28.). But they suck. So considering that loss, I’m lucky to have gone 3-4, I suppose.

Week 9 Article

Week: Against the Spread: 3-4; Straight Up: 4-3
Season: Against the Spread: 27-22; Straight Up: 31-11

Also, I’m trying to build out some depth on this site. You can see the entire summary of my weekly picks under the “SPORTS” > “NFL SPORTSBOOK – SPREAD ‘EM” at the top of the page, or you can click here.

I hated last week’s lines. This week, there are some great games (Cincy-Pitt, New England-Indy, Cowboys-Packers, Philly at San Diego), and some great lines. I feel much more confident about this week’s picks, for what it’s worth.

Also, I’ve given up on breaking out the ‘guaranteed winners’ from the ‘fillers’. As far as I’m concerned, until I rebound and consistently win weeks, I can’t guarantee anything. They are all fillers, given my current streak.

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Detroit Lions at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-17)

The one strong trend I’ve noticed this year is how well teams coming off a bye are playing this year. I don’t have stats to back me up, but my gut feeling is strong enough to roll with this one. 17 points is probably the largest line of the year, as it should be. If the Lions manage to throw away a double digit spread to Seattle last week, they can easily blow 17 points against the Vikings coming off a bye. This could be a toss up between the Vikings Offense and Defense to see which group scores the most points in this game. Minnesota, 38 – Detroit, 10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at MIAMI DOLPHINS (-10)

The Bucs beat my team in one of the biggest upsets in recent Packer history (I probably haven’t been this embarrassed since Vick and the Falcons beat us in a playoff game years ago), but they still don’t earn my respect. Miami could easily be the best 3-5 team in the history of the NFL. They’ve played the Colts, Saints, and Patriots really tough. Last year they had the easiest of schedules. This year, it’s been murder. I look for them to clean up against the easier competition as long as they don’t have a punt blocked for a TD, give up 6 sacks, or throw 3 INTs, including 1 TAINT. Miami, 30 – Tampa Bay, 13.

DENVER BRONCOS (-4) at Washington Redskins

To be a little fair to myself, I picked Denver to win and cover in my weekly article, but then picked Pittsburgh to win in my weekly pick pool once I had more time to think about it. However, I’m not completely off the Denver bandwagon, like Vegas is, especially against Washington. The best remedy after getting your ass kicked in back-to-back weeks by Baltimore and Pittsburgh? Play one of the worst franchises in the league. Washington’s Defense (especially coming off a bye week) is actually decent, so that scares me a bit against Kyle Orton, but I think that the Washington Offense (especially if Clinton Portis is a scratch) is bad enough to give Denver more than a decent chance of dominating this game. The Broncos redeem the egg they laid a couple of weeks ago in the Baltimore-Washington metropolis. Denver, 23 – Washington, 10.

Seattle Seahawks at ARIZONA CARDINALS (-9)

I don’t care what anyone says, Seattle is absolutely terrible. And Arizona, while they’ve been worse at home on the road this year, is actually a fairly legit team. If Larry FItzgerald has under 200 yards and 3TDs this week, I’ll be very disappointed. Arizona, 34 – Seattle, 13.

Philadelphia Eagles at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3)

I’m fairly certain that I’ve been wrong on every Eagles-involved bet this year except the early season game against New Orleans. Philly cost me my survivor pool entry earlier this year. They cost me a top 3 finish this week in my pick pool by losing to Dallas. I’ve always argued that McNabb has been the most overrated QB in the league since he was drafted. I’ve never seen a Quarterback be so inaccurate and still make Pro Bowls. Any other top 10 QB on that roster in the earlier half of this decade and they would’ve made multiple Super Bowls.

I think the Chargers, my preseason pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, are finally figuring things out and, more importantly, earning my trust (I picked them to win the game in New York this past weekend). Philadelphia lost their last California trip (to OAKLAND!), so there’s nothing that tells me they won’t do it again. And even if it’s a close game, the Eagles, as noted by the Philadelphia Inquirer, will choke it away (The Eagles are 4-13-1 in the last 2.5 seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer. That includes a 1-6-1 record last season and a 0-2 record this year). San Diego, 27 – Philadelphia, 17.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers

People quickly forgot how bad Pittsburgh was in the first half of the Denver game. They had under 50 yards of offense. That might work against a Denver team that couldn’t be points on the board (think: the old Kyle Orton), but in the last couple of games, Cincy has gotten off to really fast starts (think: the old Carson Palmer). I think they scored on their first 5 possessions against Chicago and their first 3 possessions against Baltimore. And I still am not buying Mendenhall being a legit RB (a random fyi: someone found The Great Wahl a couple of months ago by Googling ‘Is Rashard Mendenhall Jewish?’), especially against a still-very-underrated Bengals Defense.

I can’t say that I’m shocked that this line is a full touchdown, because Vegas and the general betting public have a love affair with Pittsburgh, but I can say they are wrong. I’m very confident Cincinnati covers the spread. I’m less confident they win this game outright, but I picked Carson and Cedric to beat Baltimore last week, so I’m going to continue to ride the bandwagon and stretch this pick a bit. I look for the Bengals to put an absolute stranglehold on the AFC North as they sweep both Baltimore and Pittsburgh this year. Cincinnati, 21 – Pittsburgh, 20.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns

This is a joke, right? Can’t ESPN flex out of this game somehow? The exec who thought the Browns would even be marginally entertaining/good this year, should be fired for having this game on the slate. I think they’d get higher ratings if they rebroadcast the World Series of Poker or the Spelling Bee. What a terrible Monday night game. Remember what I said earlier in this post about teams coming off bye weeks playing well? That doesn’t apply to the Browns, because, well…they are incapable of playing well.

The last time these two teams played, it wasn’t even a competition. I look for that to be the case yet again. The only thing that could make this game watchable is if the Browns owner comes down in the second half and pulls Mangini off the sideline with a literal hook around the neck like those old cartoons. Baltimore, 30 – Cleveland, 6.